What India really wants from the US election

With a few days left before the US presidential election, the world is waiting to see whether American voters will elect their first female president Hi,llary Clinton, or opt for the controversial billionaire Donald Trump. But one thing is sure – the election of either candidate will have a profound impact on US foreign policy.

India, which has transformed its ties with the United States over the past two decades, has its own reasons – especially economic ones – to monitor the election closely.

What India wants

Only two years ago, outgoing US President Barack Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi set the goal of increasing bilateral trade to US$500 billion by 2020. The Indian government expects the new US administration to launch initiatives to achieve this goal.

Artist Harwinder Singh Gill creates an image of US President Barack Obama out of vegetables. Munish Sharma/Reuters

The government in New Delhi also hopes that its counterpart in Washington will remain committed to helping India realize its “Smart City” program for the cities of Ajmer, Vishakhapatnam, and Allahabad.

The Modi government has addressed America’s concerns regarding India’s Civil Liability Nuclear Damage Act 2010 by establishing the Indian Nuclear Insurance Pool, covering financial liability to nuclear operators for accidents, which has removed a stumbling block to deepening civil-nuclear cooperation. The onus is now on the US to facilitate the operation of the agreement as soon as possible.

While the United States has become India’s largest defense supplier (defense trade between the two countries surpassed US$14 billion in 2015), India also needs close cooperation from the United States to ensure the success of the Modi government’s “Make in India” initiative.

In terms of security, India is concerned by China’s position on disputed territories (such as Arunachal Pradesh in the country’s northeast and Ladakh in the northwest) and by the growing cooperation between Beijing and Islamabad. China now provides 63% of Pakistan’s armament.

New Delhi feels the presence of the United States in South Asia will help maintain the balance of power in its favour. The Indian government also knows it cannot pursue military modernisation without access to advanced US weaponry and technology.

Isolating Pakistan for failing to address terrorism adequately also requires the Indian government to sustain security talks and military exercises with the US.

This has assumed additional significance in light of the fast-changing security environment in South Asia. The situation intensified following the September terrorist attack on an Indian army camp, near the town of Uri, in Jammu and Kashmir.

Trump: India’s new best friend?

With an eye on garnering votes from the Indian-American community, Donald Trump has made many comments about India and its people during the last leg of his election campaign.

Empty seats waiting for Republican Hindu coalition members at a rally in New Jersey. Jonathan Ernst

Trump has described Modi as a “great man”, at the same time stating that he is a “great fan of the Hindus“.

Trump wants to attract the attention of the Indian-American community with Hindu nationalist rhetoric. By strongly condemning the Uri terrorist attack, he has sent a message that under his administration, the US would talk tough with Pakistan on the issue of cross-border terrorism.

As a businessman, Trump also has significant economic interests in India, with a luxury business tower being built in a premium location in Mumbai.

But what continues to haunt Indians are Trump’s views on immigration. According to official US data:

Indian citizens are the top recipients of temporary high-skilled worker H-1B visas, accounting for 70% of the 316,000 H-1B petitions (for fiscal year 2014).

Trump has already announced that his administration will initiate a tough immigration policy and hike the minimum wage paid to H1B visa holders if elected president. This could reduce the prospect of job opportunities for Indian professionals and others.

According to the US migration census, 103,000 Indian-born students enrolled in US educational institutions in 2013-14. This makes India the second largest source of international students to the United States after China.

Another statement of concern is Trump’s call for Muslims to be banned from entering the US; India has the second-largest Muslim population in the world.

Finally, Donald Trump’s soft approach towards Russia may propel him to revisit US policy towards China. If that happens, it would have serious security ramifications for India.